The High-Probability Trade Every Options Trader Should Know About

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In my latest webinar “Create Your Own Odds: the High-Probability Trade for Consistent and Easy Income” I discuss the most overlooked aspect in all of investing/trading……probabilities.

Probabilities allow the self-directed investor the ability to choose trades with a proper return on capital while creating a risk profile that suits each individuals needs. Basically, when using options appropriately you are able to choose your own probability of success.

Trading stocks only has a probability of success of 50%. I harp on this statistic all the time, but for some reason self-directed investors can’t comprehend the magnitude of that number.

Below is the chance of having three profitable trades in a row given the probability of success.

The 33% represents the typical out-of-the-money trade that a retail options trader makes. As you can see the probability of success is already only 33% to start and to try to successfully make that type of trade 3 times in a row…well you are better off going to Vegas.

As for the 50% trade, that is your typical stock or futures trade, essentially a coin flip. As you can see to obtain three successful trades in a row you only have a 12.5% chance. Again, not good. So the question is why do so many investors/traders choose to participate in something that is statistically a loser from the onset. Yet, most investors choose this route. They choose to enter into something that is inherently a loser. It makes no sense.

Only when you get to a probability of success 85% and greater do you start to see the true advantages of using a probability of success for each and every trade you place.

Probability of Success

  • Probability of Success = 90%   3 in a row   = 72.9%
  • Probability of Success = 85%   3 in a row   = 61.4%
  • Probability of Success = 68%   3 in a row   = 31.4%
  • Probability of Success = 50%   3 in a row   = 12.5%
  • Probability of Success = 33%   3 in a row   = 3.6%

But again, most investors/traders ignore the advantage of investing with probabilities. And this is why most traders fail.

Kindest,

Andy Crowder

Editor and Chief Options Strategist

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