With 2015 coming to an end, and the market struggling to stay in positive territory, I have to say that I don’t think 2016 is going to be much better. I think the overall market will be choppy, I think it will be flat to down, and I think there’s money to be made by shorting stocks – and money to saved by selling certain stocks as well.
It may be hard to let go of certain stocks. If you have a big winner, the tendency is to let it run, and normally I would agree. If the stock is doing well because it is agnostic toward the overall market, and the fundamentals are great, you should hold it. But if you think it may be wavering a bit, then consider taking some profits off the table.
If you have a big loser, your pride can take a beating by throwing in the towel. Yet you can take a tax write-off and avoid bigger losses if the market turns against all investors.
LinkedIn and Twitter Trouble
I really do not get LinkedIn (NASDAQ: LNKD). This is nothing more than an online résumé posting site and spam-bot. There is no business model. It does not solve a problem. Yet somehow everyone thinks it has … something.
LinkedIn lost money in fiscal year 2014. It has lost $150 million in the trailing 12 months. So why is it trading at $232 per share? I don’t know, but I’d sell it and get out now, because sooner or later the bottom drops out. I think it happens in 2016.
The same goes for Twitter (NYSE: TWTR). Look, it’s a neat platform but there is simply no way to really monetize it. It doesn’t solve a problem. People could live just fine without it. Meanwhile, it lost $645 million in FY13, $578 million in FY14, and $655 million in the trailing 12 months. It runs negative free cash flow every year. Sell now.
Whole Foods and First Solar
I think one could argue that Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFM) is approaching a value level. However, I am not convinced that it is time to jump in at $30 per share. It sounds like competition is, in fact, getting to the company. Moreover, if the market does struggle next year, I think the high-end shopper is going to tighten their belts. I think you’d do better elsewhere and should sell it.
I have never been a fan of solar stocks. The technology is problematic. It is not as efficient as believed. But if next year is as weak as I think, then consumers will not make discretionary expenditures. Many solar rebates are now gone. First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) just warned for 2016, and the stock was down 10%. This is a stock to sell, along with all other solar stocks.
Lackluster Lululemon
Lululemon Atheletica (NASDAQ: LULU) has lost its luster, and that’s because apparel retail is a fickle business. Shoppers are not always going to stick with the same brands. They shift.
Lululemon’s same-store sales are good, cash flow is OK, but the company’s EPS is flagging. Its third-quarter earnings report was a big disappointment. I do not think you want to be in clothing retail next year. This is one of the stocks to sell in 2016.
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