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In the July 29th issue of Daily Profit we asked what you think about
P/E’s for the S&P 500. Here’s the exact question:
I’m curious to hear whether you’re bullish or bearish on the stock market.
The Wall Street Journal has the current P/E for the S&P 500 at 17 and
the forward P/E based on earnings estimates at 13. Let me know what you
think.
The emails came streaming in…
We’ve posted below some of the more engaging comments (and certainly
excluded the most inflammatory, off topic, or just too long comments). Take a
look and see what investors like you have to say.
Then tell us what you think. Write in at ianwyatt (@) wyattresearch.com
(without the parentheses) with the subject line: Bullish or Bearish.
Please note that these comments below are the sole opinions of
individual Daily Profit readers and do not necessarily reflect the
opinions of me or any employees here at Wyatt Investment Research.
Ed R. wrote:
Hello Ian,
I am a member of your Small Cap Investor Pro. I’m
basically a beginning investor with a lot of years of investing on my
own…with plenty of help from newsletters, etc.I think that the stock market will be a
roller coaster but edging higher through the end of the year. I am on the
side of the bulls.
LLV38 wrote:
As a dividend investor I’m am most likely
classified as being bullish on this market.
Dale N. wrote:
Ian,
I think earnings reports are more to do with developing and emerging market
consumers than US.This market is a political market, not economic, and no one is Washington,
Europe, Japan is in charge, or they simply don’t have the ability to do
what needs done. The market does not like not knowing so we have the high
earnings and high volatility.This being my point of view, I am Bullish.
Frank Y. wrote:
I see no catalysts on the horizon that would
support the contention of earnings staying at currently reported levels or
increasing. Also, exports do not look very promising. I am bearish.
James G. wrote:
I think that the DOW will trade in the range
of 9500 to 12000 for the next couple of years unless something big happens.
So I would call myself slightly bullish.
Jim L wrote:
Ian,
I’m leaning bullish,
1) the previous two quarters were draw it up then slam it down
2) the end of the world crowd is crowing loudly, but the market climbs a
wall of worry
3) retail is always horrible in the summer, then picks up into
September
4) the election is just over three months away, we should have good
visibility no later than October
5) the market has churned sideways for the past 12 months, and should be
ready for good economic news
6) any resolution of the Bush tax cuts will need to be before the
election
Chris M. wrote:
I am bearish on the economy but very bullish
on the stock market. The reason is simple – supply and demand. The last ten
years have been extremely good to the top 5% in wealth. Thanks to Bush era
policies, they have more money than ever to invest. Unless some other
investment comes along to siphon that money away (like real estate did),
the default location is the stock market. So, until that alternative
investment comes along I expect the stock market to do very well.
EH R. wrote:
I am neutral on the stock market until we know if we have divided
government or single party government after the elections in November. I
believe sentiment is being driven by very loud politics. I’m hopeful of
significant policy changes after the new congress is installed in January.
Consumer and investor confidence should improve if the current policies are
neutered.
Russell G. wrote:
While not discounting a short term rally may
now be taking place, I am definitely bearish for many reasons:
1) the interest rates are being kept low, sooner or later they will have to
go up and that will present problems,
2) the debt of our country will continue to rise, and if this
administration isn’t removed (or prevented from taking further action) they
will continue to raise taxes further preventing growth,
3) since 70% of our GNP is based on consumer spending, the consumer will be
smarter that the administration and will further contract spending,
4) if the democrats hold the House and Senate for two more years, they (the
Dems) will either destroy the country or their will be a revolt of some
kind to retake the country. That leaves the country to be
5) very vunerable to attacks and further illegal immigration problems,
further hurting the economy. Will stop here, am getting depressed writing
this.
Dale C. wrote:
Short term bullish but cautious, longer term (4th Q) bearish – definitely
bearish the 1stQ next year as taxes may weight heavy on consumer and small
business.
RA W. wrote:
I am bearish.
Jim B. wrote:
Earnings will begin to deteriorate along with the economy (Very little top
line growth except for international companies and even that will begin to
deteriorate) and as businesses run out of ways to cut costs those forward
p/e’s will become higher than current p/e’s, not lower!
Denny F. wrote:
Bullish…
1. Two years before an election
2. 60% of stimulus still unspent
3. Insurance claims are high in the P&C field (Insurance stimulus)
Click
here to read the full article from Daily Profit that elicited these
comments.