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As most of you know, I mostly deal with high-probability options-selling strategies. So, the benefit of having a new and growing market of speculators is that we have the ability to take the other side of their trade.
I like to use the casino analogy. The speculators (buyers of options) are the gamblers and we (sellers of options) are the casino. And as we all know, over the long term, the casino always wins.
Why? Because probabilities are overwhelmingly on our side.
So far, my statistical approach to weekly options has worked well. I introduced a new portfolio (we currently have four) for Options Advantage subscribers in February 2014.
We’ve made 23 out of 25 successful trades in the Weekly Options Portfolio for a 92% win ratio. The return per trade: 10.8%.
The key is to point out that while these are weekly trades, we are using a strict set of guidelines to place our trades. We are not going out and just making random weekly trades for the sake of trading action. Taking the more-is-better approach is not sustainable. I only care about taking action on the highest probability of trades – the ones with the true odds. This is why you only see an average of 1.5 trades per month in the portfolio.
Define the Stocks
So how do I use weekly options?
I start out by defining my basket of stocks. Fortunately, the search doesn’t take too long, considering weeklys are limited to the more highly liquid products like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEArca: DIA), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEArca: IWM) and the like.
My preference is to use the S&P 500 ETF, SPY. It’s a highly liquid product and I’m completely comfortable with the risk/return it offers. More importantly, I’m not exposed to volatility caused by unforeseen news events that can be detrimental to an individual stock’s price, and in turn, my options position.
Once I’ve decided on the underlying issue, in my case SPY, I start to take the same steps I use when selling monthly options.
Monitoring RSI
I monitor on a daily basis the overbought/oversold reading of SPY using a simple indicator known as relative strength index (RSI). And I use it over various time frames (2), (3) and (5). This gives me a more accurate picture as to just how overbought or oversold SPY is during the short term.
Simply stated, RSI measures how overbought or oversold a stock or ETF is on a daily basis. A reading above 80 means the asset is overbought; below 20 means the asset is oversold.
Again, I watch RSI on a daily basis and patiently wait for SPY to move into an extreme overbought/oversold state. Once an extreme reading hits, I make a trade.
Again, it must be pointed out that just because the options I use are called “weeklys” doesn’t mean I trade them on a weekly basis. Just like my other high-probability strategies, I will only make trades that make sense.
As always, I allow trades to come to me and never force a trade just for the sake of action. I know this may sound obvious, but other services offer trades because they promise a specific number of trades on a weekly or monthly basis. This doesn’t make sense, nor is it a sustainable – and more importantly, profitable – approach.
OK, so let’s say SPY pushes into an overbought state, like it did during the middle part of July.
Once we see a confirmation that an extreme reading has occurred, we want to fade the current short-term trend, because history tells us that when a short-term extreme hits, a short-term reprieve is right around the corner.
In our case, we would use a bear call spread, also known as selling a vertical call spread. A bear call spread works best when the market moves lower, but it also works in a flat to slightly higher market.
And this is where the casino analogy really comes into play.
Remember, most of the traders using weeklys are speculators aiming for the fences. They want to take a small investment and make exponential returns. Not us. Why? Because we want the odds stacked on our side
Take a look at the options chain below.
I want to focus on the percentages in the far left column.
Knowing that SPY is currently trading for roughly $212, I can sell options with a probability of success in excess of 78% and bring in a return of 17.6%.
Just look at the July 214 strike. If we sell the July 214 strike and buy the July 215 we can bring in $0.15 ($0.27 – $0.12) for again, a 17.6% return.
If I lower my probability of success I can bring in even more premium, thereby increasing my return. It truly depends on how much risk you are willing to take. I prefer around 80% or above.
Take the July 214.5 strike. It has a probability of success (Prob.OTM) of 84.97%. Those are still incredible odds when you consider that the speculator (the gambler) has less than a 16% chance of success. It’s a simple concept that for some reason not many investors are aware of.
If you are interested in learning the intricacies of my step-by-step approach when trading weekly options, please sign up for my free webinar. You’ll not only learn how I trade weekly options, you will also learn a few other simple options strategies that use probabilities to your advantage.
If you can’t make it, no big deal. Register today and I will make sure you receive the recorded presentation shortly after the live event to watch at your leisure.
Forget everything you thought you knew about the market…
Because you’re about to discover a unique – and highly profitable – approach to stocks that maybe 1-in-1,000 investors know about. Yet it’s a simple, safe, and easy-to-use trading tactic that has, historically, made money nearly 90% of the time. Even better – following this simple strategy lets YOU determine how much money you make. Check it out now. Just click here. The next round of trades are all ready and waiting for you here.