Oil is a Coiled Spring - Wyatt Investment Research

Stocks were following the game plan nicely yesterday. The dollar was down against the euro, and stocks and commodities were rallying nicely.

It all fell apart when European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet called the inclusion of the IMF in the Greek bailout plan “very bad.”

I see his point – this was a great opportunity for Europe to come together and handle the Greek debt matter in-house. Of course, we know Germany was resisting. And in the end, Germany got its way.

Now, European leaders are hailing the resolution as a major step for the Union. Whatever. Just get this thing resolved so we can get back to the rally to 1,200 on the S&P 500.

Oil prices are up as much as $1 this morning on the news. It should be apparent that oil is a coiled spring, ready to bounce higher. It has maintained high levels in the face of a rising U.S. dollar. It will rise as the euro rallies against the dollar in the wake of the Greek debt resolution.

But watch out for next week’s payroll number. The market is expecting payrolls to rise by 200,000. If we get a sign that hiring may be picking up, oil prices are going to shoot higher.

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The government is rolling out a new plan to modify underwater mortgages. Statistics show that the majority of delinquent mortgages that have been modified are still delinquent. And the government’s new plan highlights the reality that the housing market is not improving as fast as hoped.

Of course, this will likely keep the Fed from moving on interest rates anytime soon. And it’s also likely that the homebuyer credit will be extended again. Though, the effectiveness of the latest extension is dubious. Some argue that any pent up demand for housing was released during the initial time period for the homebuyer credit. So there were no buyers left to take advantage of the credit during the extension.

Still, some say that when the homebuyer credit ends in April, it will further dampen home sales.

Even during yesterday’s decline, financial stocks were strong. That bodes well for the overall stock market to continue higher.