Stocks are off to a solid start after May’s retail sales report blew all expectations out of the water.

Economists believed we’d see a bump in retail sales as states began their reopening process in May. Yet none of them predicted an 8% jump in retail sales at best.

Imagine their surprise when government data showed that retail sales shot up 16.8% month-over-month in May.

On top of that, food sales rose 17.7%. Retail sales of clothing and accessories shot up 188%. And retail sales of sporting goods rose 88.2%.

All of those monthly gains set records.

Admittedly, those retail sales gains were coming off a low base. Despite the big sequential increase, the total retail sales were 6.1% lower than in May of last year.

The good news is that the huge recovery in retail sales means we’ll likely see a solid recovery in the broader economy. States will continue to reopen, and folks will get back to work, shopping and going to restaurants.

As a result, economists predict record-breaking GDP gains.

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Why Miami Pauses Reopening

Miami, one of Florida’s most populous cities, just decided not to move into the next phase of reopening and pause at Phase 2. Florida is one of 22 states in which new positive coronavirus cases have spiked over the past two weeks. There are more than 1,600 new cases reported each day. It’s little wonder that Miami, one of the most popular tourist destinations in the U.S., is playing it safe.

Beijing Expands Residential Lockdown

A total of 29 residential compounds in the city have been placed on lockdown as new cases spike in Beijing. In addition, high-risk groups, including people who have come in close contact with confirmed cases, have been forbidden from leaving the city. Outbound taxi and car-hailing services have also been banned from leaving Beijing and some long-distance bus routes have been suspended.

The Fed Is Buying Bonds

Despite the encouraging news on the retail front, there have been some hiccups with the corporate financing markets. The economic crisis means that some companies have had trouble borrowing the money they need to keep their doors open. To help facilitate that borrowing, the Federal Reserve has said it will “begin buying a broad and diversified portfolio of bonds to support market liquidity and the availability of credit.”

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The Coronavirus Numbers

Here the numbers from Tuesday at 8:04 a.m. ET:

8,142,743 Infected worldwide
439,760 Global deaths
2,183,126 Infected in the U.S.
118,321 Deaths in the U.S.

What’s Next?

U.S. stocks are rallying on Tuesday morning.

The S&P and Dow Jones are both posting gains of over 2%. And the small-cap Russell 2000 is up over 3%. The gains are a big step toward recouping last week’s losses.

Yet after such significant gains it makes sense to be cautious

The big gains in numbers like retail sales and GDP are sure to send the markets higher. Yet more bad news could be on the horizon. We see this evidenced by Miami delayed reopening. And increasing cases of COVID-19 spiking across the country and around the world.

Don’t be shy about taking advantage of bargains in the market, especially companies with reasonable debt and strong businesses.

Just don’t get lulled into a false sense of security. Market volatility is likely to remain throughout 2020.

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Yours in Health & Wealth,

Ben Shepherd