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There could be very good news on Covid vaccinations and Covid spread in the months ahead.
That’s because of “coronavirus math.” The virus can, and has, spread exponentially.
But if enough people receive Covid vaccinations, the opposite can also be true. With enough Covid vaccinations, we could see an exponential decline in Covid cases.
That point on Covid vaccinations was brought up in a New York Times article by Professor Zoe McLaren of the University of Maryland.
McLaren noted, “Every case of Covid-19 that is prevented cuts off transmission chains, which prevents many more cases down the line.”
“The end of the pandemic will therefore probably look like this,” McLaren writes: “A steep drop in cases followed by a longer period of low numbers of cases, though cases will rise again if people ease up on precautions too soon.”
Let’s hope the professor is correct.
The Big News
Amazon Prospers in the Pandemic
Amazon has reported its second straight quarter of $100 billion-plus sales. This was well ahead of Wall Street expectations. It continues to reap the rewards of changes in behavior driven by the pandemic. People around the world are doing more online shopping and video streaming and working from home. This boosted Amazon’s cloud computing business. The company posted net sales of $108.5 billion in the first quarter, up 44% on the same period a year ago. Net income more than tripled to $8.1 billion.
Covid Hitting Hard in Latin America
The Covid crisis in Latin America is taking an alarming turn for the worse. Last week, Latin America accounted for 35% of all coronavirus deaths in the world. That’s despite having just 8% of the global population. The reason seems to be the political leadership in many countries in the region. Many leaders (Brazil, Mexico, etc.) are still in denial about the virus.
One Shot Good If You’ve Had Covid
Many researchers are adjusting their view on Covid vaccinations for people who have had Covid. If you have, get only one shot of an mRNA vaccine. People that do get the second shot often get unnecessary side effects. That’s because the body was already primed to respond against the virus because of the prior infection.
India’s Slow Vaccine Rollout
India is the world’s leading producer of vaccines. But it is also the global leader in Covid-19 deaths. As of Thursday, only about 26 million people — 1.8% of India’s population — had been fully vaccinated. Indian drug manufacturers produce tens of millions of doses a month. But that satisfies only a fraction of the demand for covid vaccinations in a country where 940 million adults will be eligible for shots starting on Saturday.
Moderna to Boost Vaccine Production
Moderna plans to spend billions of dollars to boost production of Covid-19 vaccines. It may triple its yearly output of doses in 2022. The company said it could produce up to 3 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines in 2022. That compares with a projected output of up to 1 billion this year. Moderna said it would make no less than 800 million doses this year. That’s up from a minimum 700 million it had forecast previously.
The Coronavirus Numbers
Global coronavirus cases has surpassed 150 million. Here are the numbers from Friday at 8 a.m. ET from Johns Hopkins University:
- 150,618,263 Infected Worldwide
- 1,085,024,689 Vaccines Given Globally
- 3,168,517 Deaths
- 32,289,907 Infected in the U.S.
- 237,360,493 U.S. Vaccine Doses Administered
- 575,197 Deaths in the U.S.
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What’s Next
Wall Street closed at another record high yesterday. The S&P 500 rallied 0.7% to close above 4,211, a new all-time closing high.
Copper surged to a new ten-year peak above $10,000 a ton and oil firmed up above $64. The strong cyclical play based on the reopening story is holding up.
However, some investors remain cautious.
Investors have topped up their cash holdings at the fastest rate since March 2020 and the beginning of pandemic panic.
Since then, stock markets have bounced back strongly. The S&P 500 has gained 88% since its March 2020 low and rallied beyond 4,200 points to that new closing high on Thursday.
Data from fund flow tracker IPFR showed investors moved $57.3 billion into cash in the week to Wednesday.
I suspect this cash will be fuel for a major rally in the near future.
Meanwhile, one global crypto exchange is preparing to IPO. Go here for urgent crypto Pre-IPO details.
Yours in Health & Wealth,
Tony Daltorio