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Stocks rallied on Monday with the Dow Jones industrials rising over 8%.
Those gains will be extended on Monday with pre-market trading showing another 3% rise.
Why are stocks rallying when the American death toll is rising rapidly? Well, in a single word . . .
HOPE.
Investors are searching for signs of improvement. They’ve found these signs in Europe – where the spread of the virus appears to have slowed down after four weeks of lockdown in places like Italy.
Plus, in New York the number of new cases appears to have plateaued. This indicates that social distancing and stay-at-home orders are effective at reducing the spread.
There is certainly more good news today than last week. Yet it’s also clear that the U.S. is still in the early innings in the fight against the coronavirus.
New York has been ground zero for spread of the virus in the U.S. And I’m expecting that we’ll see growing outbreaks in other parts of the country in the coming weeks.
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The Big News . . .
U.S. Deaths Exceed 1,200 in 24 Hours
This week could be the deadliest for the outbreak. On Monday, 1,200 infected Americans died. That brings the total death toll to 11,000 in the U.S.
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China Reports Zero New Deaths Yesterday
The virus originated in Wuhan China in December. Four months later, the country reported its first day with no deaths since the outbreak began. This is a signal of what lies ahead for the U.S. If we are lucky, the deaths will stop in mid-summer.
Trump Advisor Warned of Pandemic in January
Trade advisor Peter Navarro sent a warning to the president on Jan. 29. He explained that America was unprepared for a coronavirus outbreak. He advised that 500,000 Americans could die as a result.
British Prime Minister Moved to ICU
Prime Minister Boris Johnson was hospitalized on Sunday night. By Monday evening, he was relocated to the intensive care unit. The U.K. has no official succession plan should Johnson become unable to serve.
France Deaths Hit Record High
The situation in France continues to deteriorate. The country has over 74,000 cases and nearly 9,000 fatalities. On Monday, 613 people died. The country’s health minister advised that “confinement is more necessary than ever.”
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The Coronavirus Numbers
Here are the numbers from Tuesday at 9 a.m. ET.
- 1,362,201 Infected worldwide
- 76,356 Deaths
- 367,719 Infected in the U.S.
- 10,995 Deaths in the U.S.
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What’s Next
Stocks have bounced over 20% from the lows. I’ve observed as optimism has run rampant over the last couple weeks – despite a surge in cases and unprecedented deaths.
Right now, the market appears to be pricing in a quick recovery. And market prices suggest that the U.S. will return to “business as usual” in May.
Frankly, I’m skeptical.
Why?
Because the negative impact on the U.S. economy will not disappear after American’s are told it’s “all clear.”
Even if we are told that it’s safe – will most Americans really trust that recommendation? Will folks quickly return to restaurants or go to the movies? Will Major League Baseball start its season – and will 30,000 fans pack stadiums sitting elbow to elbow?
There are over 10 million newly unemployed people in the last two weeks. These are hardworking Americans who lost their jobs through no fault of their own. Will all of these people simply be rehired on May 1? Will their previous employer be ready to hire back everyone?
The American consumer has seen their investments and retirement accounts posting considerable losses. Consumer confidence has been shattered.
Nobody will want to book a summer vacation. And the idea of getting on a flight seems months away for many Americans.
More economic data will be coming in the weeks ahead. And even more importantly, investors will be hearing from corporate America starting next week.
That’s because earnings season is getting underway. And everyone will be watching this news for signs of the impact to sales and earnings.
Shocking earnings season results will be commonplace.
Given the size of this crisis, it’s nearly impossible to predict earnings season WINNERS and LOSERS. Instead, I’m planning to use this Overnight Trading strategy.
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Yours in Health & Wealth,
Ian Wyatt