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Prototypes are being tested. Google’s self-driving car got pulled over for driving too slowly. But are engineers even close to a viable driverless car system as far as technology is concerned? I asked several experts in an attempt to figure out the best way to invest in the sector.
Elizabeth Cathles, a practitioner with Deloitte Consulting, and co-author of Deloitte’s recent Future of Mobility report, noted that several companies are already in the pilot stage.
“Some automakers are already moving beyond, and have introduced driver-assist or semi-autonomous technologies into their production lines,” Cathles said. “Technical development is likely to accelerate exponentially as consumers adopt autonomous drive features and effectively amplify the automakers’ testing mileage in autonomous drive.”
With respect to that development, however, there are a tremendous number of elements to integrate in self-driving cars, and then they must interface properly at all times.
“One of the greatest challenges in achieving fully autonomous driving is the seamless integration of all the systems, from the Human Machine Interface (HMI) and sensing systems, to path planning, as well as all the information that’s coming into the vehicle from the cloud, satellite, etc,” said Doug Patton, executive vice president of engineering and chief technical officer of DENSO International America, in Southfield, Mich. “Integrating all of that together – in a way that makes the driver have a comfortable and safe riding/driving experience – will be a great challenge.”
Are They Safe?
The first thought that likely comes to most people’s minds regarding autonomous cars is whether the technology will truly be safe. Can they replicate or improve on human decision-making, or our feel for the road?
The experts point out that computers are able to beat even grand masters at chess, and that driving a car isn’t that much more complicated.
“Experience teaches that computers are actually better at decision-making capability than humans. Humans tend to overestimate the value of “experience” and “feel,” and rarely compete successfully against computers and algorithms dedicated to particular purposes,” said Fred Ledley, director of the Center for Integration of Science and Industry at Bentley University in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Olivier Sappin, vice president of transportation and mobility at Dassault Systems, said by the numbers, humans generally perform poorly behind the wheel.
“Worldwide, over 1.24 million deaths are related to road accidents and as many as 50 million people are injured annually; human error can be attributed to 90% of these collisions,” Sappin said. “In addition to detecting their surroundings using ultra-sophisticated mapping systems, future cars will be able to communicate with each other, and feature safety warnings that alert drivers of potentially dangerous conditions.”
Consumer Attitudes Are a Hurdle
However, things get more complex when it comes to ethical decision-making. Michelle Krebs, a Detroit-based senior analyst for AutoTrader.com, raises critical issues in this area.
“How does the decision-making of the autonomous car get programmed to make choices, such as a situation when it has to select between hitting something on the road that might be a living being, or possibly hitting a tree to avoid it?” Krebs asked. “How does it know the difference?”
Indeed, Krebs offered results from a January AutoTrader survey that revealed consumers may have a long way to go before accepting the technology. As many as 65% call it a “dangerous idea,” and 33% say they would not trust a self-driving vehicle. Krebs says consumers would need to be educated and have experience before they are fully confident in the concept.
In building the bridge to widespread consumer acceptance, another apparent hurdle may be the price point for self-driving cars. Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) faces these challenges, as its earliest models were priced near $100,000. Yet most of our experts felt pricing would not be an issue.
Krebs pointed out that the hardware (lasers, cameras, etc.) continues to drop in price. Dr. Ledley noted that software systems are comparatively inexpensive compared to the complex mechanical systems of the auto itself. Finally, Sappin brushes the notion of price aside altogether.
“Price is not the key issue. Many vehicles on the road today have L2 or L3 levels of technology. Most OEMs currently offer some level of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) today. This includes collision detection, parking assistance, lane departure warning, etc.,” Sappin said.
Timelines for Self-Driving Cars
Only one big question remains: when can we expect these vehicles to be on the road, or to achieve widespread consumer acceptance? Most of our experts agreed that the basics of the technology are already piloting, but it could be another 10-15 years before self-driving cars are sweeping the nation.
Doug Patton offered the last word on this thorny question.
“Truly automated driving is many years away – probably beyond 2030,” he said. “Two major barriers are safety, meaning the technology works 100% of the time no matter the road conditions, and consumer acceptance. Technology cannot work 99% of the time.”
Who do you invest with? There are three big players right now: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Tesla and Google, whose parent company is Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL). All three are making progress, yet if you are going to choose, I would choose the company as a whole rather than just who is ahead in driverless cars.
Tesla, Apple and Google Are Creating This
When people think of Tesla, what immediately comes to mind is the world’s first electric car. It’s an astounding achievement. But what few people realize is that Tesla’s next technological wonder could easily put it to shame. Morgan Stanley says this breakthrough could save the American economy $1.3 trillion each year. And Tesla’s not the only one racing to get it out the door. Apple and Google are working on their own versions too.