Where Does Baidu Stock Go From Here?

During the second quarter of 2015, I wrote two articles about Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) in this space. The first article on Baidu stock was published May 19 and it had a bullish slant to it. The second article was published June 18 and it had a bearish slant to it.
Those two dates are marked on the daily chart below. Baidu stock was in a very prominent trend channel with clearly defined upper and lower rails. The channel dictated another low (July 8) and another high (July 24) before the stock completely collapsed in August. The stock then rallied sharply from mid-September through the end of November. This rally took the stock outside of the channel on the top side, just as the collapse from late July through late September took it out of the channel on the downside.

The drop in the Chinese market has now brought the stock back in to the channel. My question is, does the channel start dictating highs and lows again?
That is an honest question above. I have never really tracked a stock that was in such tight, well-defined channel once it broke out of the channel the way Baidu did last summer. Now that the stock has re-entered the channel, I am curious to see how the stock behaves around the old upper and lower rails.

While my curiosity will keep me watching the stock closely, my opinion on the stock is that it keeps heading lower for now. The weekly chart shows the channel from the second quarter of last year, but it also shows that momentum is clearly to the downside right now and it has been for approximately six weeks. The weekly slow stochastic readings made a bearish crossover at the end of November and yet the readings are still well above the 50 mark, which indicates Baidu stock isn’t even close to being oversold at this time. Does the stock keep falling until it hits what used to be the lower rail? Does it find support in the $160 area, the site of the gap higher in October that is visible on both the daily and weekly chart?
Another item of concern for me regarding Baidu stock is the sentiment toward the stock. Even as the stock has been moving lower for over a year now, with the exception of the 10-week stretch from the end of September through the end of November, the sentiment toward Baidu stock is still relatively bullish. The short interest ratio is only 1.9 and 21 of the 30 analysts that follow the stock still have it rated as a “buy.”
With the momentum in the Chinese market being to the downside, the momentum in Baidu stock being to the downside and the sentiment being bullish toward Baidu, I think the stock continues falling. I would think the $160 level would be a minimum target for Baidu stock while the $145 level doesn’t seem out of reach either. As far as a stop loss point, I would set a stop just above $190.

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