Goldman Sachs Stock Market Prediction (chart)

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The Federal Reserve is expected to slash interest rates.

CME’s FedWatch reports the likelihood of rate cuts based on trading activity.

There is currently a 39% chance of a ¼ point rate cut. And a 61% chance of a ½ point rate cut.

The Fed is expected to cut rates for two reasons.

  1. Inflation has now fallen to 2.5% in August
  2. The U.S. economy and job market is showing signs of weakness.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will announce the decision on Wednesday.

This is likely the first move in a rate cutting cycle. By the end of next year, the Fed funds are is expected to be 2.75% – 3%.

Rate cuts will result in lower costs to borrow money for mortgages, credit cards and auto loans.

Income investors will also earn less income from U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, CDs and money market accounts.

What does it mean for the stock market?

It really depends on whether there is a recession.

In the past 40 years there have been 10 times when the Fed was lowering interest rates.

This chart from Goldman Sachs shows what typically happens.

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The red line shows that stocks fall if there is a recession.

However, the blue line shows that stocks perform very well if the Fed cuts and there isn’t a recession.

Long-term investors want the Fed to cut interest rates. And for the U.S. economy to avoid a recession.

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