Bust out the champagne and caviar!
New ALL TIME HIGHS for the S&P and Dow Jones. Plus, the Nasdaq is up 50%.
You’ve heard the skeptics and their warnings…
“Inflation will remain high… a banking crisis is going to unfold… office real estate is crashing… the consumer is weak… a Middle East oil shock is coming… the Santa Claus rally failed.”
Ummm — not so much.
Stocks have ignored it all…
Climbing the famous “wall of worry.”
The good news is that stock market gains will likely continue.
It’s been 2 years since the S&P 500 made an all-time high. And this latest breakout signals that the new bull market is thriving.
Let’s take a look at the data back to 1957…
There are 13-times when the S&P went +1 year WITHOUT making an all-time high.
Once it made a new all-time high – it was off to the races.
The average gain one-year later was 11.8%.
You can see all the data here…
In fact, there was only 1 time when the S&P 500 was lower 1-year later.
That was after the May 2007 all-time high.
You’ll recall that the Great Financial Crisis was underway in 2008 and 2009. And the S&P fell nearly 9% over the next year.
It doesn’t seem like we’re on the brink of a major financial crisis. #FamousLastWords
Here’s the takeaway…
A new all-time high is bullish for stocks.
This is especially true when it’s been +12 months since the prior all-time high.
Stocks are higher 92% of the time in this situation.
You don’t want to be selling these new all-time highs.
The odds suggest that stocks will continue delivering positive returns in 2024.
Ian “Staying Bullish” Wyatt