100% Chance Stocks Rise

The stock market rally will continue through December.

The S&P 500 is now clocking YTD gains of 20.5%.

September is typically a BAD month for stocks.

Yet that’s not the case in 2024.

The S&P 500 is up 1% in September. And it’s trading at an all-time high.

There have been 21 times that the S&P has made a new high in the month of September.

When that happens…

There’s a 90% chance that the S&P rises through the end of the year. And the average gain is roughly 5%.

The outlook is even better when the S&P hits an all-time high in September of a Presidential Election year.

That’s happened only six times.

Every time that’s happened the market is up between October and December 31. The average gain is 6%.

The Federal Reserve rate cut is fueling the latest rally.

The Fed cut interest rates by ½ point last week. That supersized rate cut was 2x larger than the normal ¼ point move.

I’ve already pointed out that…

Stocks will outperform if the Fed is cutting rates AND the U.S. economy is able to avoid a recession.

This chart shows the S&P hitting new all-time highs this week.

Please don’t get scared out of the market with doom and gloom predictions.

There’s a lot of noise out there warning of the next Great Recession. And pundits calling for a massive crash in the market.

The economic data shows that economic growth is slowing. Yet it’s not turning negative and it’s unlikely that a recession is on the immediate horizon.

The Fed rate cuts will force a rotation out of low-risk, high-yield investments. And investors will begin rotating some of that cash into equities.

The trend of the market is #Bullish.

Ian